Showing 1 - 10 of 1,154
Modern globalization (which includes free flows of trade and factors of production across frontiers, stable rates of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011509424
globalization,” built on two central premises: countries differ in their preferences over policies (such as the rule of law or …, tends to support globalization. However, the transition to a multipolar world can trigger fragmentation, which is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015420366
We examine the effects of World Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risk on Trade flows for 31 European economies between 1995 and 2023. To do so, we resort to Panel estimation techniques, including OLS and Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML). Our findings reveal that European nations primarily...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015077831
A frequently employed argument against imposing international sanctions is that rival superpowers are likely to bust sanctions to simultaneously shield the target, harm the sender, and make a profit. We evaluate the legitimacy of this concern by studying the effect of US sanctions on trade flows...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013455721
of policy (geopolitics), and study how the saliency of this dimension may play in favor of the incumbent group. My …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009130179
nations tends to be confirmed. However, multiple equilibria can emerge with globalization backlash associated with large … dynamic version of the model shows stable paths of decreasing size of nations, increasing globalization and (at least … toward a steady state with excessive globalization, too many countries and typically too much government spending. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011508079
How do firms in neutral developing countries adjust their supply chains in response to geopolitical and economic fragmentation? Do they comply with or circumvent Western sanctions on Russia? Using comprehensive transaction-level bill of lading data from major developing countries, we study these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014529225
This study examines the effects of geopolitical risk and global uncertainty on energy prices, conditioned by different exchange rate regimes, for 185 economies over the period 1980-2023. The central question is how uncertainty impacts energy prices and whether exchange rate flexibility mediates...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015074620
After decades of rising global economic integration, the world economy is now fragmenting. To measure this phenomenon, we introduce an index of geopolitical fragmentation derived from various empirical indicators. This index is developed using a flexible dynamic factor model with time-varying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014576951
Using Russia as a case study and a global VAR model as a methodological tool, we analyze how heightened geopolitical risk shocks propagate across advanced economies and quantify the economic effects of these events. The global VAR impulse response functions in response to the skyrocketing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014452016