Similar Search Results

Spend-and-tax adjustments and the sustainability of the government's intertemporal budget constraint

Legrenzi, Gabriella Deborah; Milas, Costas - 2010

We apply non-linear error-correction models to the empirical testing of the sustainability of the government's intertemporal budget constraint. Our empirical analysis, based on Italy, shows that the Italian government is meeting its intertemporal budget constraint, in spite of the high levels of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003936661

Did US consumers 'save for a rainy day' before the Great Recession?

Anundsen, André Kallåk; Nymoen, Ragnar - 2015

consumption and by exploring the direction of Granger causality between the two series. We also give evidence that house price …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010518800

Economic policy uncertainty : persistence and cross-country linkages

Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins; Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; … - 2020

This paper provides new evidence on the stochastic behaviour of the EPU (Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index constructed by Baker et al. (2016) in six of the biggest economies (Canada, France, Japan, US, Ireland, and Sweden) over the period from January 1985 to October 2019. In particular,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012219127

Uncertainty across volatility regimes

Angelini, Giovanni; Bacchiocchi, Emanuele; Caggiano, … - 2017

We propose a new non-recursive identification scheme for uncertainty shocks, which exploits breaks in the unconditional volatility of macroeconomic variables. Such identification approach allows us to simultaneously address two major questions in the empirical literature on uncertainty: (i) Does...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011778668

Political tension and stock markets in the Arabian peninsula

Al-Maadid, Alanoud; Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; … - 2018

This note investigates the effects of the recent political tensions in the Arabian peninsula on the linkages between the stock markets of the leading GCC countries by estimating a VAR-GARCH (1,1) model at a weekly frequency. The results indicate that the June 2017 crisis lowered stock market...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011931337

Bitcoin and web search query dynamics : is the price driving the hype or is the hype driving the price?

Süssmuth, Bernd - 2019

search queries with regard to their mutual predictability, Granger-causality and cause-effect delay structure. The Bitcoin is … relatively high frequencies ranging from two to five months. In the other direction, causality runs from the cryptocurrency price … measure for the relevant frequency bands with significant causality ranges from slightly more than one month to about four …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012026340

Stock markets, banks and long run economics growth : a panel cointegration-based analysis

Cavenaile, Laurent; Gengenbach, Christian; Palm, Franz C. - 2013

the direction of potential causality between financial and economic development. Our results conclude to the existence of … a single cointegrating vector between financial development and growth and of causality going from financial development … to economic growth. We find little evidence of reverse causation as well as bi-directional causality. We interpret this …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010223077

Conditional volatility and correlations of weekly returns and the VaR analysis of 2008 stock market crash

Pesaran, Bahram; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2010

Modelling of conditional volatilities and correlations across asset returns is an integral part of portfolio decision making and risk management. Over the past three decades there has been a trend towards increased asset return correlations across markets, a trend which has been accentuated...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003965868

EU banks rating assignments : is there heterogeneity between new and old member countries?

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Matousek, Roman; Stewart, Chris - 2010

We model EU countries' bank ratings using financial variables and allowing for intercept and slope heterogeneity. Our aim is to assess whether "old" and "new" EU countries are rated differently and to determine whether "new" ones are assigned lower ratings, ceteris paribus, than "old" ones. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003974520

Rating assignments : lessons from international banks

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Matousek, Roman; Stewart, Chris - 2009

This paper estimates ordered logit and probit regression models for bank ratings which also include a country index to capture country-specific variation. The empirical findings provide support to the hypothesis that the individual international bank ratings assigned by Fitch Ratings are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003832133