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climate policy community. Key remaining parties to the Agreement such as Europe and China might call for carbon tariffs on US … constitute a credible threat for the US. A tariff war with its main trading partners China and Europe might make the US worse off … than compliance to the Paris Agreement but China, in particular, should prefer US defection to a tariff war. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011665785
Did the 2018/19 US-China trade war trigger adjustment of Global Value Chains (GVCs) and nearshoring to Mexico? We … domestic activities in Mexico. However, we also document a negative impact of the retaliatory tariffs of China, primarily … affecting export services and a counterbalancing negative effect of the US tariffs via GVC firms' inputs from China …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014340112
We find that Republican candidates lost support in the 2018 congressional election in counties more exposed to trade retaliation, but saw no commensurate electoral gains from US tariff protection. The electoral losses were driven by retaliatory tariffs on agricultural products, and were only...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012293757
We examine the indirect effects of the US-China trade war on Brazil’s labor market. Using industry-specific tariff … the trade conflict. Following higher exports to China, our findings reveal that regions more exposed to Chinese …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015394156
Using disaggregated US household expenditure data, we study the distributional consequences of the US-China trade war …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015179224
On April 2, 2025, President Trump declared "Liberation Day", announcing broad tariffs to reduce trade deficits and revive U.S. industry. We analyze the long-term economic impacts of these tariffs through the lens of a trade model that features flexible tariff passthrough and endogenous trade...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015404478
We document the outbreak of a trade war after the U.S. adopted the Smoot-Hawley tariff in June 1930. U.S. trade partners initially protested the possible implementation of the sweeping tariff legislation, with many eventually choosing to retaliate by increasing their tariffs on imports from the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012491602
A common narrative is that COVID-19 cost Trump re-election. We do not find supporting evidence; if anything, the pandemic helped Trump. However, we find substantial evidence that voters abandoned Trump in counties with large increases in health insurance coverage since the Affordable Care Act,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012421123
The trade war initiated by the Trump administration is the largest since the US imposed the Smoot-Hawley tariffs in the 1930s and was still raging when he left office. We analyze how the trade war impacted the 2020 US Presidential election. Our results highlight the political salience of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013171058
Do the U.S. have a current account surplus or a deficit with the EU? Since 2009, official sources disagree: The U.S. Department of Commerce claims a consistent U.S. surplus while Eurostat reports the opposite. International transactions are notoriously difficult to measure accurately, but the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012065058