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Evaluation of long-dated investments under uncertain growth trend, volatility and catastrophes

Gollier, Christian - 2012

probability of macroeconomic catastrophes à la Barro (2006), and to the case of an uncertain trend or volatility of growth à la …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009689360

Liquidity risk, credit risk and the overnight interest rate spread : a stochastic volatility modelling approach

Beirne, John; Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Spagnolo, Nicola - 2010

In this paper we model the volatility of the spread between the overnight interest rate and the central bank policy … 2007. During the crisis, the policy spread exhibited signs of volatility, owing to the breakdown in interbank market … activity. The determinants of this volatility are assessed using Stochastic Volatility models to gauge the role played by …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003983199

Volatility forecasts for the RTS stock index : optionimplied volatility versus alternative methods

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Teterkina, Daria - 2019

This paper compares volatility forecasts for the RTS Index (the main index for the Russian stock market) generated by … alternative models, specifically option-implied volatility forecasts based on the Black-Scholes model, ARCH/GARCH-type model … information content). Various forecasting performance tests are carried out which suggest that both implied volatility and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011997328

The economics of bitcoins : market characteristics and price jumps

Gronwald, Marc - 2014

This paper deals with the economics of Bitcoins in two ways. First, it broadens the discussion on how to capture Bitcoins using economic terms. Center stage in this analysis take the discussion of some unique characteristics of this market as well as the comparison of Bitcoins and gold. Second,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010464707

Dissecting characteristics nonparametrically

Freyberger, Joachim; Neuhierl, Andreas; Weber, Michael - 2018 - This version: July 2018

We propose a nonparametric method to study which characteristics provide incremental information for the cross section of expected returns. We use the adaptive group LASSO to select characteristics and to estimate how they affect expected returns nonparametrically. Our method can handle a large...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011888693

Dissecting characteristics nonparametrically

Freyberger, Joachim; Neuhierl, Andreas; Weber, Michael - 2017 - This version: February 2017

We propose a nonparametric method to test which characteristics provide independent information for the cross section of expected returns. We use the adaptive group LASSO to select characteristics and to estimate how they affect expected returns nonparametrically. Our method can handle a large...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011619632

Oil prices, exchange rates and sectoral stock returns in the BRICS-T countries : a time-varying approach

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Catik, A. Nazif; Kışla, … - 2021

This paper analyses the effects of oil prices and exchange rates on sectoral stock returns in the BRICS-T countries over the period from 2 January 2001 to 22 March 2021. After estimating a benchmark linear model, the possible presence of structural breaks is investigated using the Bai and Perron...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012625861

Measuring market expectations

Baumeister, Christiane - 2021

Asset prices are a valuable source of information about financial market participants.expectations about key macroeconomic variables. However, the presence of time-varying risk premia requires an adjustment of market prices to obtain the market’s rational assessment of future price and policy...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012622575

Sovereign bonds since Waterloo

Meyer, Josefin; Reinhart, Carmen M.; Trebesch, Christoph - 2019

This paper studies external sovereign bonds as an asset class. We compile a new database of 220,000 monthly prices of foreign-currency government bonds traded in London and New York between 1815 (the Battle of Waterloo) and 2016, covering 91 countries. Our main insight is that, as in equity...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011973856

The micro dynamics of macro announcements

Mittnik, Stefan; Robinzonov, Nikolay; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2013

response analysis. Second, we examine the announcements effects on market volatility in a more detailed fashion by … adequately analyze both conditional mean and volatility effects. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010190208