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Predictability of bull and bear markets : a new look at forecasting stock market regimes (and returns) in the US

Haase, Felix; Neuenkirch, Matthias - 2021

The empirical literature of stock market predictability mainly suffers from model uncertainty and parameter instability. To meet this challenge, we propose a novel approach that combines the documented merits of diffusion indices, regime-switching models, and forecast combination to predict the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012416151

Stylized facts and simulating long range financial

Davies, Laurie; Krämer, Walter - 2016

We propose a new method (implemented in an R-program) to simulate long-range daily stock-price data. The program reproduces various stylized facts much better than various parametric models from the extended GARCH-family. In particular, the empirically observed changes in unconditional variance...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011444067

An alternative conditional asymmetry specification for stock returns

Brännäs, Kurt; Nordman, Niklas - 2001

The paper advances the log-generalized gamma distribution as a suitable generator of conditional skewness. Based on the NYSE composite daily returns an asMA-asQGARCH model along with skewness dynamics is estimated. The results indicate a skewness that varies between sizeable negative skewness...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011398115

Bitcoin fluctuations and the frequency of price overreactions

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Plastun, Alex; Oliinyk, Viktor - 2018

This paper investigates the role of the frequency of price overreactions in the cryptocurrency market in the case of BitCoin over the period 2013-2018. Specifically, it uses a static approach to detect overreactions and then carries out hypothesis testing by means of a variety of statistical...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011922057

On the frequency of price overreactions

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Plastun, Alex - 2018

This paper explores the frequency of price overreactions in the US stock market by focusing on the Dow Jones Industrial Index over the period 1990-2017. It uses two different methods (static and dynamic) to detect overreactions and then carries out various statistical tests (both parametric and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011844559

The frequency of one-day abnormal returns and price fluctuations in the FOREX

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Plastun, Alex; Oliinyk, Viktor - 2020

This paper analyses the explanatory power of the frequency of abnormal returns in the FOREX for the EURUSD, GBRUSD, USDJPY, EURJPY, GBPCHF, AUDUSD and USDCAD exchange rates over the period 1994-2019. Abnormal returns are detected using a dynamic trigger approach; then the following hypotheses...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012196296

Forecasting exchange rates : an investor perspective

Melvin, Michael; Prins, John; Shand, Duncan - 2013

The popular scholarly exercise of evaluating exchange rate forecasting models relative to a random walk was stimulated by the well-cited Meese and Rogoff (1983) paper. Practitioners who construct quantitative models for trading exchange rates approach forecasting from a different perspective....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009743826

Gold, oil, and stocks : dynamic correlations

Baruník, Jozef; Kočenda, Evžen; Vácha, Lukáš - 2015

We employ a wavelet approach and conduct a time-frequency analysis of dynamic correlations between pairs of key traded assets (gold, oil, and stocks) covering the period from 1987 to 2012. The analysis is performed on both intra-day and daily data. We show that heterogeneity in correlations...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010515402

Macro-financial linkages in the high-frequency domain : the effects of uncertainty on realized volatility

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Karanasos, Menelaos; Yfanti, … - 2019

This paper estimates a bivariate HEAVY system including daily and intra-daily volatility equations and its macro …-augmented asymmetric power extension. It focuses on economic factors that exacerbate stock market volatility and represent major threats to … commodity markets on stock market realized volatility. Specifically, Economic Policy Uncertainty is shown to be one of the main …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012158736

Oil price uncertainty and sectoral stock returns in China : a time-varying approach

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Ali, Faek Menla; Spagnolo, Nicola - 2014

suggests that oil price volatility affects stock returns positively during periods characterised by demand-side shocks in all …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010375190