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The ambiguity triangle : uncovering fundamental patterns of behavior under uncertainty

Burghart, Dan; Epper, Thomas; Fehr, Ernst - 2015

risk preferences. Here, we develop an analogous tool for choice under uncertainty - the ambiguity triangle - and show that … characterize this heterogeneity with finite-mixture estimates of a one-parameter extension of Expected Utility Theory wherein 48 …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011286466

Uncertainty and fiscal policy in an asymmetric monetary union

Hefeker, Carsten (contributor); Zimmer, Blandine (contributor) - 2008

The paper examines the monetary-fiscal interactions in a monetary union model with uncertainty due to imperfect central bank transparency. We first show that monetary uncertainty disciplines fiscal policymakers and thereby reduces taxes, average inflation and output distortions. However, as more...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003749682

Collective risk-taking decisions with heterogeneous beliefs

Gollier, Christian - 2003

degree of pessimism of the representative agent is the mean of the individual ones weighted by their index of absolute risk …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011507677

Guaranteed renewable life insurance under demand uncertainty

Hoy, Michael; Mirza, Afrasiab; Sadanand, Asha B. - 2018

literature that, when there is (only) risk type uncertainty, the optimal GR contract with renewal price set at the actuarially … fair price for low risk types provides full insurance against reclassification risk. We develop a model that includes … unpredictable (and unobservable) fluctuations in demand for life insurance as well as changes in risk type (observable) over …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011864322

Policy coordination under model disagreement and uncertainty

Hefeker, Carsten; Neugart, Michael - 2019

What are the incentives for governments to coordinate their policies internationally when there is model disagreement and uncertainty? We build a model where countries disagree on policy targets and how policies affect the economies, and show that uncertainty not only determines the type of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011966668

Export decision under risk

Sousa, José de; Disdier, Anne-Célia; Gaigné, Carl - 2016

regularities by developing a new firmbased trade model wherein managers are risk averse. Higher volatility induces the reallocation …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011547934

The resolution of uncertainty in the value and probability domains

Lee, Eungik; Ngangoue, Kathleen M.; Schotter, Andrew - 2024

We compare preferences for temporal resolution when uncertainty is resolved over a probability rather than a value. In various frameworks-e.g., Kreps and Porteus (1978)-, preferences over gradual versus one-shot resolution do not depend on whether values or probabilities define the main object...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014456336

All it takes is one : the effect of weakest-link and summation aggregation on public good provision under threshold uncertainty

Carlsson, Frederik; Ek, Claes; Lange, Andreas - 2021

We report experimental evidence on the voluntary provision of public goods under threshold uncertainty. By explicitly comparing two prominent technologies, summation and weakest link, we show that uncertainty is particularly detrimental to threshold attainment under weakest link, where low...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012696938

Should Faustmann forecast climate change?

Gars, Johan; Spiro, Daniel - 2019

Climate change is predicted to substantially alter forest growth. Optimally, forest owners should take these future changes into account when making rotation decisions today. However, the fundamental uncertainty surrounding climate change makes predicting these shifts hard. Hence, this paper...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012015877

Domestic and global uncertainty : a survey and some new results

Castelnuovo, Efrem - 2019

This survey features three parts. The first one covers the recent literature on domestic (i.e., country-specific) uncertainty and offers ten main takeaways. The second part reviews contributions on the fast-growing strand of the literature focusing on the macroeconomic effects of uncertainty...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012119543