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We analyze optimal monetary policy and its implications for asset prices, when aggregate demand has inertia and responds to asset prices with a lag. If there is a negative output gap, the central bank optimally overshoots aggregate asset prices (asset prices are initially pushed above their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013093040
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012546900
curve. Most importantly, variation in yield skewness has substantial forecasting power for future bond excess returns, high …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012547050
We propose a theory of indebted demand, capturing the idea that large debt burdens by households and governments lower … aggregate demand, and thus natural interest rates. At the core of the theory is the simple yet under-appreciated observation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012199991
.e., perfectly correlated with) model-implied bond yields. However, this theoretical implication appears inconsistent with … regressions showing that much macroeconomic variation is unspanned and that the unspanned variation helps forecast excess bond …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010476670
We propose a model that delivers endogenous variations in term spreads driven primarily by banks’ portfolio decision and their appetite to bear the risk of maturity transformation. We first show that fluctuations of the future profitability of banks’ portfolios affect their ability to cover...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009682825
We study optimal monetary policy during temporary supply contractions when aggregate demand has inertia and expansionary policy is constrained. In this environment, it is optimal to run the economy hot until supply recovers. Positive output gaps in the low-supply phase lessen the negative output...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012886884
Central banks unexpectedly tightening policy rates often observe the exchange value of their currency depreciate, rather than appreciate as predicted by standard models. We document this for Fed and ECB policy days using eventstudies and ask whether an information effect, where the public...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012287994
The overnight money market rate is a key monetary policy tool. In recent years, central banks worldwide have developed new monetary policy strategies aimed at keeping its deviations from the policy rate small and short-lived. This paper describes the main instruments used for this purpose by the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012308499
long-term interest rates, corporate bond spreads and durable spending to news TFP shocks. Interest rates across the … maturity spectrum broadly increase in the pre-1980s and broadly decline in the post-1980s. Corporate bond spreads decline …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011990092