The popular scholarly exercise of evaluating exchange rate forecasting models relative to a random walk was stimulated by the well-cited Meese and Rogoff (1983) paper. Practitioners who construct quantitative models for trading exchange rates approach forecasting from a different perspective....

We compute confidence intervals for recursive impact factors, that take into account that some citations are more prestigious than others, as well as for the associated ranks of journals, applying the methods to the population of economics journals. The Quarterly Journal of Economics is clearly...

This paper proposes a linear categorical random coefficient model, in which the random coefficients follow parametric categorical distributions. The distributional parameters are identified based on a linear recurrence structure of moments of the random coefficients. A Generalized Method of...

The paper advances the log-generalized gamma distribution as a suitable generator of conditional skewness. Based on the NYSE composite daily returns an asMA-asQGARCH model along with skewness dynamics is estimated. The results indicate a skewness that varies between sizeable negative skewness...

Established tests for proper calibration of multivariate density forecasts based on Rosenblatt probability integral transforms can be manipulated by changing the order of variables in the forecasting model. We derive order invariant tests. The new tests are applicable to densities of arbitrary...

In this study, we compare the out-of-sample forecasting performance of several modern Value-at- Risk (VaR) estimators derived from extreme value theory (EVT). Specifically, in a multi-asset study covering 30 years of stock, bond, commodity and currency market data, we analyse the accuracy of the...

We postulate a nonlinear DSGE model with a financial sector and heterogeneous households. In our model, the interaction between the supply of bonds by the financial sector and the precautionary demand for bonds by households produces significant endogenous aggregate risk. This risk induces an...

We examine how regularly scheduled macroeconomic announcements for the U.S., Germany and the euro area affect the German stock market, using high-frequency, minute-by-minute DAX data. Our study extends the literature on high-frequency announcement effects in several ways. First, we account for...

This paper proposes a novel regularisation method for the estimation of large covariance matrices, which makes use of insights from the multiple testing literature. The method tests the statistical significance of individual pair-wise correlations and sets to zero those elements that are not...

We study the small sample properties of conditional quantile estimators such as classical and IV quantile regression. First, we propose a higher-order analytical framework for comparing competing estimators in small samples and assessing the accuracy of common inference procedures. Our framework...