realized sales, we document that only major forecast errors are predictable and display autocorrelation. This result is a … forecast errors are neither predictable nor autocorrelated. To arrive at this result, we develop a novel methodology to … environments where information processing is more costly. This results in major forecast errors that are predictable and …

’ forecast errors of own sales growth. In this context, we conduct a variety of exercises to demonstrate the methodology …

This paper studies how managers plan under uncertainty. In a new survey panel on German manufacturing firms, we show … that uncertainty reflects change: Planning incorporates higher subjective uncertainty about future sales growth when the …, subjective uncertainty closely tracks conditional volatility of shocks: Both exhibit an asymmetric V-shaped relationship with …

forecasts are derived from non-directional forecasts and whether point forecast have predictive value when transformed into …

growth, inflation, and unemployment over 1985-2020, we find pervasive overreaction to news at most of the monthly forecast …

uncertainty of a combined forecast should be interpreted as that of a typical forecaster randomly drawn from the pool. With a … some previously used measures significantly underestimate the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty. … standard factor decomposition of a panel of forecasts, we show that the uncertainty of a typical forecaster can be expressed as …

quarterly frequency. We forecast gross domestic product (GDP) for two German states (Free State of Saxony and Baden …. Our results show that we can significantly increase forecast accuracy compared to an autoregressive benchmark model, both … structure better than other indicators. -- leading indicators ; regional forecasting ; forecast evaluation ; forecast …

We have argued that from the standpoint of a policy maker, the uncertainty of using the average forecast is not the … that the uncertainty of the average forecast can be expressed as the disagreement among the forecasters plus the volatility … the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty. …