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Oil prices, exchange rates and interest rates

Kilian, Lutz; Zhou, Xiaoqing - 2019

There has been much interest in the relationship between the price of crude oil, the value of the U.S. dollar, and the U.S. interest rate since the 1980s. For example, the sustained surge in the real price of oil in the 2000s is often attributed to the declining real value of the U.S. dollar as...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011966739

Global banking, trade, and the international transmission of the great recession

Born, Alexandra; Enders, Zeno - 2018

large parts of the world. In this paper we explore the financial and the trade channel in a unified framework and quantify …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011800166

Different no more : country spreads in advanced and emerging economies

Born, Benjamin; Müller, Gernot J.; Pfeifer, Johannes; … - 2020

Interest-rate spreads fluctuate widely across time and countries. We characterize their behavior using some 3,200 quarterly observations for 21 advanced and 17 emerging economies since the early 1990s. Before the financial crisis, spreads are 10 times more volatile in emerging economies than in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012162762

Business cycles, unemployment insurance, and the calibration of matching models

Costain, James; Reiter, Michael - 2003

This paper points out an empirical failing of real business cycle models in which unemployment is endogenized through a matching function. One can easily choose a calibration to make the cyclical fluctuation in unemployment as large in the model as it is in the data, or to make the response of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011509369

Macroeconomic uncertainty and the impact of oil shocks

Van Robays, Ine - 2012

demand and supply shocks. The results show that higher macroeconomic uncertainty, as measured by higher world industrial … production volatility, significantly increases the responsiveness of oil prices to oil shocks. This implies a lower price … volatility. Also the impact of oil shocks on economic activity appears to be significantly stronger in uncertain times. -- oil …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009621702

National and supranational business cycles (1960 - 2000) : a multivariate description of central G7 and EURO15 NIPA aggregates

Süssmuth, Bernd - 2002

This paper applies volatility measures and VAR spectral analytic techniques to give a thorough description of the ….The central findings are summarized with regard to (i) national product share, contribution-to-variance and volatility …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011408998

Business cycles, international trade and capital flows : evidence from Latin America

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Girardi, Alessandro - 2012

American (LA) countries and the four largest economies in the world (namely the US, the Euro area, Japan and China) over the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009683383

The impact of the global financial crisis on business cycles in Asian emerging economies

Fidrmuc, Jarko; Korhonen, Iikka - 2009

We analyze the transmission of global financial crisis to business cycles in China and India. The pattern of business cycles in emerging Asian economies generally displays a low degree of synchronization with the OECD countries, which is consistent with the decoupling hypothesis. By contrast,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003861779

The impact of macro news and central bank communication on emerging European forex markets

Égert, Balázs; Kočenda, Evžen - 2013

news and communication along with the estimated exchange rate misalignment on exchange rate as well as its volatility …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009764449

Cross-country unemployment insurance, transfers, and trade-offs in international risk sharing

Enders, Zeno; Vespermann, David - 2021

We assess to which degree an international transfer mechanism can enhance consumption risk sharing as well as allocative efficiency and apply our results to the implicit transfers generated by a potential European unemployment benefit scheme (EUBS). Specifically, we first develop a simple model...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012491596