mainly the imposition of a highly unrealistic prior for the global impact price elasticity of oil supply. Once identification … uncertainty about the global price elasticity of oil supply is accounted for by specifying a prior more in line with extraneous …

/1991, speculative demand shocks also played a role. Third, it is shown that temporary oil price hikes influence economic decisions that … demand shocks can emerge that to date appear to have been overlooked. …

unconventional, puzzling or erroneous conclusions. Finally, we discuss the construction of extraneous measures of oil demand and oil … supply shocks that have been used as external or internal instruments for VAR models. …

This paper examines the advantages and drawbacks of alternative methods of estimating oil supply and oil demand … conclusion that the one-month oil supply elasticity is close to zero, which implies that oil demand shocks are the dominant …

and demand. Supply disruptions turn out to be a bigger factor in historical oil price movements and inventory accumulation … uncertainty about the identifying assumptions themselves. We use this approach to revisit the importance of shocks to oil supply … a smaller factor than implied by earlier estimates. Supply shocks lead to a reduction in global economic activity after …

contrast, a negative shock to oil supply in Saudi Arabia leads to an immediate and permanent increase in oil prices, given that … supply shock has significant adverse effects for the global economy with real GDP falling in both advanced and emerging …This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of country-specific oil-supply shocks. Our contribution …

A common approach for estimating the macroeconomic effects of oil supply news employs SVAR-IV models identified using …