We develop a simple model of the exchange rate in which agents optimize their portfolio and use different forecasting rules. They check the profitability of these rules ex post and select the more profitable one. This model produces two kinds of equilibria, a fundamental and a bubble one. In a...

A general framework is described specifying how boundedly rational decision makers generate their choices. Starting from a "Master Module" which keeps an inventory of previously successful and unsuccessful routines several submodules can be called forth which either allow one to adjust behavior...

In this paper, we construct alternative theoretical models for exchange rates by introducing additional risk factors, based on the volatility of macroeconomic fundamentals. The modified flexible-price monetary model is used to characterize the long-run equilibrium of exchange rates, while the...

Suppose that a group of agents having divergent expectations can share risks efficiently. We examine how this group should behave collectively to manage these risks. We show that the beliefs of the representative agent is in general a function of the group's wealth level, or equivalently, that...

We develop a monetary model with flexible supply of labor, cash in advance constraints and government spending financed by seignorage. This model has two regimes. One regime is conventional with two steady states. The other regime has a unique steady state which can be determinate or...

The traditional criticism notwithstanding, we show that social mobility can, in principle, explain political income redistributions. Nonetheless, the social-mobility argument for redistribution is not satisfactory, as actual transition probabilities are not consistent with order-preserving...

In this paper we propose a simple model of bailing out that closely describes the intergovernmental relationships between the Central government and the regional governments in the Italian public health care sector. The theoretical model suggests that bail out expectations by regions can be...

We examine a certain nonlinear model. Markov SSEs exist near an indeterminate steady state. ... We show that there exist Markov SSEs, that are E-stable, and therefore locally stable under adaptive learning, ...