Realized variance can be broken down into continuous volatility and jumps. We show that these two components have very different predictive powers on future long-term excess stock market returns. While continuous volatility is a key driver of medium to long-term risk-return relationships, jumps...

Via the well-known financial leverage effect, decreases in stock prices cause an increase in the levered equity beta for a given unlevered equity beta. However, as growth options are more volatile and have higher risk than assets in place, a price decrease may decrease the unlevered equity beta...

Stochastic volatility models, aka SVOL, are more difficult to estimate than standard time-varying volatility models (ARCH). Advances in the literature now offer well tested estimators for a basic univariate SVOL model. However, the basic model is too restrictive for many economic and finance...

Discrete time stochastic volatility models (hereafter SVOL) are noticeably harder to estimate than the successful ARCH family of models. In this paper, we develop methods for finite sample inference, smoothing, and prediction for a number of univariate and multivariate SVOL models. Specifically,...

We formally incorporate parameter uncertainty and model error in the estimation of contingent claim models and the formulation of forecasts. This allows an inference on any function of interest (option values, bias functions, hedge ratios) consistent with the uncertainty in both parameters and...

The similarity between objects is a fundamental element of many learning algorithms. Most non-parametric methods take this similarity to be fixed, but much recent work has shown the advantages of learning it, in particular to exploit the local invariances in the data or to capture the possibly...

A standard model of the exploitation of a renewable resource by non-cooperating agents is considered. Under the assumption that the resource is sufficiently productive we prove that there exist infinitely many Markov-perfect Nash equilibria (MPNE). Although these equilibria lead to...

In this paper, we study and put under a common framework a number of non-linear dimensionality reduction methods, such as Locally Linear Embedding, Isomap, Laplacian Eigenmaps and kernel PCA, which are based on performing an eigen-decomposition (hence the name 'spectral'). That framework also...

The purpose of this study was to examine the role of country and technological intensity in the choice of compensation policies, and the influence of such policies on market performance and turnover in high and low technological intensity firms. Using a survey of 602 large firms in three...

Workflows (Wfs) are a major enabling technology for e-commerce. In our research, a Combined Negotiation (CN) is modeled and enacted using Wf technology. The modeling task captures the sequencing of the individual negotiations as well as the dependencies between them, and the enacting task runs...