Uncertainty in demographic developments lowers expected future welfare levels. Increasing current tax rates and decreasing expected future tax rates may compensate part of the welfare loss that is due to demographic uncertainty. In doing so, the government effectively pursues a precautionary...

This paper presents stochastic simulations, i.e. simulations that combine the CGE model of the Dutch economy GAMMA with stochastic population projections, to quantify uncertainties surrounding the consequences of population ageing for Dutch public finances. The expected increase in the ratio of...

The ageing of the Dutch population, resulting in an increase in the number of retirees relative to the working population, has induced a debate about the sustainability of the Dutch first pillar pension scheme (AOW). The system is financed as a pay-as-you-go system. This paper explores possible...

This CPB Discussion Paper addresses two policy questions with respect to public defined benefit (DB) pension schemes. Firstly, does a funded DB pension scheme increase welfare? Secondly, how large is the commitment problem of pension funds after an adverse capital market shock? This CPB...

This study compares the expected retirement replacement rates of several cohorts of Dutch employees at the time of their planned retirement with the 'actual' replacement rates based on available pension records. We find that using reasonable indexation rates, the expected replacement...

This paper investigates the question whether crime reduces investment in human capital or whether education reduces criminal activity by using fixed effect estimation on data of Australian twins. The study takes genetic and socio-economic factors shared by the twins into account. We find that...

In response to the challenge of managing the risks of a changing climate, there is no single optimal transition path for energy technology due to uncertainty in several dimensions. In this paper, we use the MERGE model, a long-term optimization model of the global energy and climate systems...

International outsourcing is an important aspect of economic globalization. Since outsourcing leads to more specialization, it is expected to reduce production costs and to increase productivity. <span>This study uses microdata on Dutch firms to investigate the effects of international and domestic...</span>

In this study, we gauge the impact of social interactions on individual retirement preferences. A survey including self-assessments and vignette questions shows that individual preferences are affected by preferences and actual retirement behavior of the social environment. Retirement from...

Large banks derive a funding advantage from being too-big-to-fail, while small banks do not. To estimate the funding advantage we explain the CDS spreads of small banks in six major European countries during the crisis by market fundamentals and bank-specific characteristics. Next, we...