In this work, we make use of the shifting-mean autoregressive model which is a flexible univariate nonstationary model. It is suitable for describing characteristic features in inflation series as well as for medium-term forecasting. With this model we decompose the inflation process into a...

The notion of model-free implied volatility (MFIV), constituting the basis for the highly publicized VIX volatility index, can be hard to measure with accuracy due to the lack of precise prices for options with strikes in the tails of the return distribution. This is reflected in practice as the...

In the present paper we suggest to model Realized Volatility, an estimate of daily volatility based on high frequency data, as an Inverse Gaussian distributed variable with time varying mean, and we examine the joint properties of Realized Volatility and asset returns. We derive the appropriate...

We study the short-term price behavior of Phase 2 EU emission allowances. We model returns and volatility dynamics, and we demonstrate that a standard ARMAX-GARCH framework is inadequate for this modeling and that the gaussianity assumption is rejected due to a number of outliers. To improve the...