We examine US housing price forecastability using a common factor approach based on a large panel of 122 economic time series. We find that a simple three-factor model generates an explanatory power of about 50% in one-quarter ahead in-sample forecasting regressions. The predictive power of the...

Trygve Haavelmo spent the academic year 1938/39 at the University of Aarhus as a teacher in statistics. He would immediately after his Aarhus stay leave for the United States, where he completed The Probability Approach in Econometrics (1944) and later worked at the Cowles Commission before...

This paper proposes the new concept of stochastic leverage in stochastic volatility models. Stochastic leverage refers to a stochastic process which replaces the classical constant correlation parameter between the asset return and the stochastic volatility process. We provide a systematic...

This paper presents a new modelling framework for day–ahead electricity prices based on multivariate Lévy semistationary (MLSS) processes. Day–ahead prices specify the prices for electricity delivered over certain time windows on the next day and are determined in a daily auction. Since...

We examine the Stein-rule shrinkage estimator for possible improvements in estimation and forecasting when there are many predictors in a linear time series model. We consider the Stein-rule estimator of Hill and Judge (1987) that shrinks the unrestricted unbiased OLS estimator towards a...

This paper generalizes the results for the Bridge estimator of Huang et al. (2008) to linear random and fixed effects panel data models which are allowed to grow in both dimensions. In particular, we show that the Bridge estimator is oracle efficient. It can correctly distinguish between...

A new and alternative quantile regression estimator is developed and it is shown that the estimator is root n-consistent and asymptotically normal. The estimator is based on a minimax ‘deviance function’ and has asymptotically equivalent properties to the usual quantile regression estimator....

There exist dual-listed stocks which are issued by the same company in some stock markets. Although these stocks bare the same firm-specific risk and enjoy identical dividends and voting policies, they are priced differently. Some previous studies show this seeming deviation from the law of one...

We develop an empirically highly accurate discrete-time daily stochastic volatility model that explicitly distinguishes between the jump and continuoustime components of price movements using nonparametric realized variation and Bipower variation measures constructed from high-frequency intraday...

Ambit processes are general stochastic processes based on stochastic integrals with respect to Lévy bases. Due to their flexible structure, they have great potential for providing realistic models for various applications such as in turbulence and finance. This papers studies the connection...