The present work applies several advanced spectral methods to the analysis of macroeconomic fluctuations in three countries of the European Union: Italy, The Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. We focus here in particular on singular-spectrum analysis (SSA), which provides valuable spatial and...

This paper uses a FAVAR model with stochastic volatility to estimate the impact of uncertainty shocks on real income growth in US states. The results suggest that there is a large degree of heterogeneity in the magnitude and the persistence of the response to uncertainty shocks across states....

We use a simple New Keynesian model, with firm specific capital, non-zero steady-state inflation, long-run risks and Epstein-Zin preferences to study the volatility implications of a monetary policy shock. An unexpected increases in the policy rate by 150 basis points causes output and inflation...

We propose an extended time-varying parameter Vector Autoregression that allows for an evolving relationship between the variances of the shocks. Using this model, we show that the relationship between the conditional variance of GDP growth and the long-term interest rate has become weaker over...

We use a factor model with stochastic volatility to decompose the time-varying variance of Macro economic and Financial variables into contributions from country-specific uncertainty and uncertainty common to all countries. We find that the common component plays an important role in driving the...

We develop a dynamic factor model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility, estimate it with several variables for a large number of countries and decompose the variance of each variable in terms of contributions from uncertainty common to all countries (global uncertainty),...

We apply the advanced time-and-frequency-domain method of singular spectrum analysis to study business cycle dynamics in a set of nine U.S. macroeconomic indicators. This method provides a robust way to identify and reconstruct shared oscillations, whether intermittent or modulated. We address...

This paper investigates if the impact of uncertainty shocks on the US economy has changed over time. To this end, we develop an extended Factor Augmented VAR model that simultaneously allows the estimation of a measure of uncertainty and its time-varying impact on a range of variables. We find...

We study the comovement of international business cycles in a time series clustering model with regime-switching. We extend the framework of Hamilton and Owyang (2012) to include time-varying transition probabilities to determine what drives similarities in business cycle turning points. We find...