In this paper a fiscal consolidation program for India has been presented based on a policy simulation model that enables us to examine the macroeconomic implications of alternative fiscal strategies, given certain assumptions about other macro policy choices and relevant exogenous factors. The...

A Structural VAR model is employed to investigate the effects of monetary and fiscal policy shocks on stock market performance in Germany, UK and the US. A significant number of past studies have concentrated their attention on the relationship between monetary policy and stock market...

This study evaluates the economic impact of the proposed COMESA-SADC-EAC Tripartite Free Trade Area (TFTA) on 26 African countries. It uses the global trade analysis project (GTAP) computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and database to measure the static effects of the establishment of the...

International aid has an ambiguous effect on the macro-economy of the recipient country. To the extent that aid raises consumer expenditure, there will be some real exchange rate appreciation and a shift of resources away from traded goods production and into non-traded goods production....

Using a small New Keynesian state space macroeconomic model, we apply maximum likelihood estimation and the Kalman filter to obtain joint estimates of the unobservable medium-run paths of potential output and its normal rate of growth, the NAIRU, the neutral real interest rate and the subjective...

This study develops comprehensive full-sector macro-econometric models for the South African economy with the aim of explaining and providing the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy changes in the country. The models are applied to test the effectiveness of fiscal policy actions in an...

Several governments in sub-Saharan Africa have embarked on various market reforms to improve commodity market performance. However, the success of such market reforms depends partly on the strength of the transmission of price signals between spatially separated markets and between different...

Standard VAR and Bayesian VAR models are proven to be reliable tools for modeling and forecasting, yet they are still linear and they do not consider time-variation in parameters. VAR modeling is subject to the Lucas critique and fails to take into account the inherent nonlinearities of the...

What is the welfare loss arising from uncertainty about true policy targets? We quantify these effects in a DSGE model where private agents are unable to distinguish between temporary shocks to potential output and to the inflation target. Agents use optimal filtering techniques to construct...

We examine the effects of fiscal shocks on the performance of alternative monetary policy rules in a small dynamic general equilibrium framework. We explicitly consider the interaction between fiscal and monetary policy rules which may be present in the real world. We use a simple specification...