A small quarterly macroeconometric model of the UK is estimated over the period 1965Q1 to 1995Q4 in eight core variables: domestic and foreign outputs, domestic and foreign prices (both measured relative to oil prices), the nominal effective exchange rate, nominal domestic and foreign interest...

This paper considers the problem of cross-sectional aggregation when the underlying micro behavioural relations are characterised by general non-linear specifications. It focuses on forecasting the aggregates, and shows how an optimal aggregate model can be derived by minimising the mean squared...

This paper argues that probability forecasts convey information on the uncertainties that surround macroeconomic forecasts in a manner which is straightforward and which is preferable to other alternatives, including the use of confidence intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output...

How are state-owned entreprises to be reformed? Privatisation seems to be the obvious solution. This essay argues that entreprises reform in the transition should focus on enhancing managerial.

In the evolutionary setting for a financial market developed by Blume and Easley (1992) the author considers an infinitely repeated version of a model B la Grossman and Stiglitz (1980) with asymmetrically informed traders. Informed traders observe the realisation of a payoff relevant signal...

In this paper we examine the spatial and temporal distribution of per capita income across Europe. We base our analysis on a cluster methodology which allows for an endogenous selection of regional clusters using a multivariate test for stationarity where the number and composition of clusters...

In a representative democracy, voters can use elections to protect their property by holding politicians accountable for the tax policies they implement while in office. This paper demonstrates that performance voting can - partly or wholly - solve the capital levy problem. We characterise the...