Given the sequential update nature of Bayes rule, Bayesian methods find natural application to prediction problems. Advances in computational methods allow to routinely use Bayesian methods in econometrics. Hence, there is a strong case for feasible predictions in a Bayesian framework. This...

The authors develop a test of infinite degree stochastic dominance based on the use of the empirical moment generating function. Two applications are considered. One uses the income data of Anderson (Econometrica, 1996) and derives results consistent with his. In the other application, the...

This paper considers information criteria as model evaluation tools for nonlinear threshold models. Results concerning the consistency of information criteria in selecting the lag order of linear autoregressive models are extended to nonlinear autoregressive threshold models. Extensive Monte...

Rising feed-in from renewable energy sources decreases margins, load factors, and thereby profitability of conventional generation in several electricity markets around the world. At the same time, conventional generation is still needed to ensure security of electricity supply. Therefore,...

Rational choice models predict that political competition and political participation have opposite effects on the size of government. We investigate these theories using data from a panel of 18 Latin American countries during the 20th century. Our research builds evidence for the prediction...

We study the consequences of the extension of the voting franchise for the size of (central) government and for the tax structure in 10 Western European countries, 1860-1938. We show, .rstly, that the gradual relaxation of income and wealth restrictions on the right to vote contributed to growth...

We endogenize the threshold points in Granovetter’s threshold model of collective behavior (Granovetter 1978). We do this in a simple model that combines strategic complementarity and private information in a dynamic setup with endogenous order of moves. Looking at Granovetter’s model in the...

We extend the experimental literature on Bayesian herding using evidence from a financial decision-making experiment. We identify significant propensities to herd increasing with the degree of herd-consensus. We test various herding models to capture the differential impacts of Bayesian-style...

In this this paper we combine economic factors that have strong trends and political factors that are stationary in a dynamic, empirical model of the evolution of public policy over a very long period in a stable democracy. The role of variation in the intensity of political competition is the...