The predictability of the market return and dividend growth is addressed in an equilibrium model with two regimes. A state variable that drives the conditional means of the aggregate consumption and dividend growth rates follows different time-series processes in the two regimes. In linear...

A novel methodology in testing the long-run risks model of Bansal and Yaron (2004) is presented based on the observation that, under the null, the potentially latent state variables, "long-run risk" and the conditional variance of its innovation, are known a¢ ne functions of the observable...

The market price-dividend ratio is highly correlated with several macroeconomic variables, particularly inflation and labor market variables, but not with aggregate consumption and GDP. We incorporate this observation in an exchange economy with learning about the economic regime from...

An economy in which investors know the true model and its parameters and filter the regime probability from aggregate consumption history has been empirically rejected. Hypothesizing that prices partly reflect investorsʼ belief about the regime, we infer beliefs from prices. The model fits well...

We show that shocks to household consumption growth are negatively skewed, persistent, countercyclical, and drive asset prices. We construct a parsimonious model where heterogeneous households have recursive preferences. A single state variable drives the conditional cross-sectional moments of...

This paper is concerned with the nonparametric estimation of regression quantiles where the response variable is randomly censored. Using results on the strong uniform convergence of U-processes, we derive a global Bahadur representation for the weighted local polynomial estimators, which is...

This paper develops methodology for semiparametric panel data models in a setting where both the time series and the cross section are large. Such settings are common in finance and other areas of economics. Our model allows for heterogeneous nonparametric covariate effects as well as unobserved...

This paper proposes the cross-quantilogram to measure the quantile dependence between two time series. We apply it to test the hypothesis that one time series has no directional predictability to another time series. We establish the asymptotic distribution of the cross quantilogram and the...

This paper considers the class of p-dimensional elliptic distributions (p ≥ 1) satisfying the consistency property (Kano, 1994) and within this general framework presents a two-stage semiparametric estimator for the Lebesgue density based on Gaussian mixture sieves. Under the online...

We examine a kernel regression smoother for time series that takes account of the error correlation structure as proposed by Xiao et al. (2008). We show that this method continues to improve estimation in the case where the regressor is a unit root or near unit root process.