This study examines the empirical implications of extending the rational expectations hypothesis (REH) to include price uncertainty. Unlike previous studies, a general estimation framework that incorporates both the restrictions on structural parameters and the variance-covariance terms is...

An econometrically estimated model is used to project the impact of the 1985 dairy program on the dairy industry and government costs. Projections indicate that a whole-herd buyout program could be an effective way of reducing the excess supply of milk while maintaining dairy income and reducing...

Price expectations are an integral part of agricultural decision making. Despite recognition of this fact, few changes have been made during the past two decades in the way price expectations appear in agricultural models. For example, the majority of existing supply response studies has assumed...

Various measures have been proposed to "harmonize" agricultural policies in the United States and the European Community. Short-run and long-run consequences of implementing three such measures are evaluated using econometric models developed by the Food and Agricultural Policy Research...

The effects of exchange rate and capital stock changes are analyzed using a CGE model for the United States. The model is in the Walrasion tradition and is calibrated to 1982 data. Results indicate that a devaluation of the U.S. dollar has a positive effect on the agricultural sector and balance...

This paper addresses the economic feasibility and impacts on U.S. agriculture of establishing a biomass crops industry capable of producing 8 quads methanol or 9.4 quads ethanol by the year 2030 from grasses grown as biomass feedstocks. The results suggest that such an industry could become...

Traditional time series models assume a constant conditional variance. Realizing the implausibility of this assumption, Bollerslev proposed Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARSH) processes, which are characterized by nonconstant conditional variances. In this paper,...

This paper investigates optimal trade policies for a developing, small open economy that faces international price uncertainly. Trade taxes are used to finance provision of a public good, which enters the utility function of consumers. If demands for private goods are independent of the public...

This paper investigates whether a small country facing foreign price instability benefits from active stabilization of the domestic price of the importable. For example, the European Community can be treated as a small open economy facing price instability of agricultural products originating in...

The modern theory of demand which underlies much of economic analysis of consumer behavior is based on the premise that consumption goods are pure and do not involve risks. However, that is clearly not the case where concerns about food safety are involved. The awareness of linkages between...