To shed light on changes in international inflation, this paper proposes an iterative procedure to discriminate between structural breaks in the coefficients and the disturbance covariance matrix of a system of equations, allowing these components to change at different dates. Conditional on...

We investigate changes in international business cycle affiliations using an iterative procedure for detecting system-wide structural breaks. We analyze GDP growth rates in two systems, one with the US, Euro-area, UK and Canada and the other for the Euro-area countries of France, Germany and...

This study examines the properties of monthly CPI inflation in G7 countries and the Euro area (aggregate) over the period 1973-2007 using a new iterative decomposition procedure that separates changes in mean, seasonal and dynamic components together with conditional volatility. We uncover mean...

This paper develops an open-economy intertemporal growth model with We provide evidence on the sources of co-movement in monthly US and UK stock returns by investigating the role of macroeconomic and financial variables in a model with time-varying correlations. Cross-country communality in...

This paper applies a business cycle dating algorithm to monthly North West county and local authority district claimant count data to assess turning points in the economic cycle of sub-regions. We date the transition of all districts of the North West into recession beginning in June 2007. By...

We provide empirical support for a DSGE model with nominal wage stickiness where growth is driven by learning-by-doing and money shocks and their variance are allowed to impact on long-run output growth. In our theoretical model the variance of monetary shocks has a negative effect on growth,...

Forecast combination methodologies exploit complementary relations between different types of econometric models and often deliver more accurate forecasts than the individual models on which they are based. This paper examines forecasts of seasonally unadjusted monthly industrial production data...

Estimating the micro-founded New Keynesian Phillips Curve using rational inflation expectation proxies has often found that the output gap is not a valid measure of inflation pressure. This paper investigates the empirical success of the NKPC in explaining US inflation, using observed measures...

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) model of inflation dynamics based on forward-looking expectations is of great theoretical significance in monetary policy analysis. Empirical studies, however, often find that inflation inertia, rather than inflation expectations, dominate the dynamics of...

This study extends the dynamic conditional correlation model to allow day-specific correlations of shocks across international stock markets. The properties of the resulting periodic dynamic conditional correlation (PDCC) model are examined, with the model then applied to study the intra-week...