Forecast combination methodologies exploit complementary relations between different types of econometric models and often deliver more accurate forecasts than the individual models on which they are based. This paper examines forecasts of seasonally unadjusted monthly industrial production data...

Estimating the micro-founded New Keynesian Phillips Curve using rational inflation expectation proxies has often found that the output gap is not a valid measure of inflation pressure. This paper investigates the empirical success of the NKPC in explaining US inflation, using observed measures...

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) model of inflation dynamics based on forward-looking expectations is of great theoretical significance in monetary policy analysis. Empirical studies, however, often find that inflation inertia, rather than inflation expectations, dominate the dynamics of...

This study extends the dynamic conditional correlation model to allow day-specific correlations of shocks across international stock markets. The properties of the resulting periodic dynamic conditional correlation (PDCC) model are examined, with the model then applied to study the intra-week...

We examine business cycle synchronizations between the euro area and the recently acceded EU and currently negotiating countries. Strong evidence is uncovered of time-variation in the degree of comovement between the cyclical components of monthly industrial production indicators for each of...

Empirical studies often find that the spread between longer and shorter rates does not have predictive power for future longer rates, violating the Expectations Theory (ET). Although the predictive power of the spread for future shorter rates is largely in accordance with the ET, especially when...

This paper explores the relationship between inequality and growth in the context of a unified empirical approach suggested by the theoretical model of Galor and Moav (2004). Based on the model’s prediction, we construct a measure of human capital-to-physical capital ratio in order to...

This paper argues that excessive financial development in combination with high levels of technological innovation or R&D activities may lead to the former being ineffective in generating economic growth. This hypothesis is examined through a dynamic panel analysis using two measures of...

This paper investigates the usefulness of information criteria for inference on the number of structural breaks in a standard linear regression model. In particular, we propose a modified penalty function for such criteria based on theoretical arguments, which implies each break is equivalent to...

To shed light on changes in international inflation, this paper proposes an iterative procedure to discriminate between structural breaks in the coefficients and the disturbance covariance matrix of a system of equations, allowing these components to change at different dates. Conditional on...