This paper contains an investigation into the potential linkages between the short-run (cyclical) and long-run (secular) movements in economic activity. The investigation is based on an analytically solvable stochastic monetary growth model in which learning-by-doing accounts for endogenous...

Motivated by the experiences of Mexico and Argentina, we explore a model intended to capture the interactions among exchange rate policy, fiscal policy, and default on foreign currency-denominated debt. Our objective is to examine how exchange rate policy affects the supply of short-term debt...

This paper examines the roles of domestic and international variables in predicting classical business cycle regimes in Germany, France, Italy and the UK over the period 1970 to 2001. A range of real and financial variables are used as leading indicators in domestic models, with these variables...

Microfinance (small scale lending to the poor) is integrated into a dynamic macroeconomic model of income distribution. Two-period-lived agents, belonging to overlapping generation of dynastic families, choose between three alternative occupations - subsistence production, small-scale project...

This paper presents an analysis of bureaucratic corruption, income inequality and economic development. The analysis is based on a dynamic general equilibrium model in which bureaucrats are appointed by the government to implement a redistributive programme of taxes and subsidies designed to...

This paper investigates the transmission of price and volatility spillovers across the New York, London, Frankfurt and Paris stock markets under the framework of the multivariate EGARCH model. The model is extended to allow dynamic conditional correlations, with the correlations allowed to...

Central banks have become increasingly aware of the importance of consumer inflation expectations in meeting monetary policy objectives. US consumer year-ahead inflation expectations data is available as measured by the Michigan 'Survey of Consumer Attitudes and Behavior'. Using the detailed...

This paper presents an analysis of demographic transition based on the endogenous evolution of intergenerational transfers along an economy's endogenous path of development. Two-period-lived agents belonging to overlapping generations choose optimally their desired levels of consumption and...

This paper tests some empirical implications of a theoretical model which proposes that the relationship between growth and its uncertainty depends fundamentally on whether the stochastic shocks causing fluctuations are real or nominal and on the presence of nominal rigidities in the economy....

This paper investigates the nature of nonlinearities in the monetary policy rule of the US Fed using the flexible approach of Hamilton (2001). We find that while there is significant evidence of nonlinearity for the period to 1979, there is little such evidence for the subsequent period....