Gaussian affine term structure models attribute time-varying bond risk premia to changing risk prices driven by the conditional means of the risk factors, while structural models with recursive preferences credit it to stochastic volatility. We reconcile these competing channels by introducing a...

The likelihood function for general non-linear, non-Gaussian state space models is a high- dimensional integral with no closed-form solution. In this paper, I show how to calculate the likelihood function exactly for a large class of non-Gaussian state space models that includes stochastic...

We build a class of copula models that captures time-varying dependence across large panels of financial assets. Our models nest Gaussian, Student's t, grouped Student's t, and generalized hyperbolic copulas with time-varying correlations matrices, as special cases. We introduce time-variation...

We develop new procedures for maximum likelihood estimation of affine term structure models with spanned or unspanned stochastic volatility. Our approach uses linear regression to reduce the dimension of the numerical optimization problem yet it produces the same estimator as maximizing the...

We investigate the relationship between uncertainty about monetary policy and its transmission mechanism, and economic fluctuations. We propose a new term structure model where the second moments of macroeconomic variables and yields can have a first-order effect on their dynamics. The data...