Inspired by findings of nonlinearities and the Theorem of Takens (1981), forecasting models of financial time series are often built upon nonlinear univariate relationships. Empirical investigations, however, are seriously contaminated by the problem of overfitting, in particular in the presence...

Recent results on the computational complexity of Brouwer and Kakutani fixed points is reviewed. It is argued that the non-polynomial complexity of fixed-point algorithms makes Walrasian general equilibrium an unrealistic model of real markets. A radically more decentralized and distributed...

As population aging sets in, publicly managed pension systems operating on the basis of pay-as-you-go (PAYG) schemes face difficulties in maintaining contribution/replacement rate-retirement age configurations. The changing age composition of societies during demographic transition gradually...

This paper examines the dynamic implications of the use of an endogenous discount factor in small open economy models. We first present a stochastic dynamic model of a small open economy with an endogenous discount factor. Then, we examine the same model with a fixed discount factor. We...

In this paper we study the finite sample properties of the nonparametric method developed by Stanton and later extended by Boudoukh, et al. for the estimation of the drifts and diffusions of multifactor continuous-time term-structure models. Monte Carlo simulations from a known parametric model...

This study is an examination of the appropriateness of using a competitive learning neural-net algorithm to model labor-force migration. In the past, there have been a number of studies to model labor-force migration using cross-sectional regression analysis. These studies model the propensity...

In this paper, we propose a new architecture to study artificial stock markets. This architecture rests on a mechanism called "school" which is a procedure for mapping the phenotype to the genotype or, in plain English, to uncover the secret of success. We propose an agent-based model of school,...

This paper discusses computationally efficient methods for exact maximum-likelihood estimation of parameters in state-space models. The proposed strategy is based on direct maximisation of the likelihood function, and it can be applied to a wide range of practical univariate and multivariate...

The literature on the optimal currency area weighs up the static gains in terms of lower transaction costs against the costs associated with adjusting asymmetric shocks when nominal exchange-rate movements are not possible. Endogenous growth theory and the new economic geography show that, in...

A recent advance in genetic computations is the heuristic prediction model (symbolic regression), which have received little statistical scrutiny. Diagnostic checks of genetically evolved models (GEMs) as a forecasting method are therefore essential. This requires assessing the statistical...