I develop a dynamic stochastic model of individual choices about health insurance, exercise, smoking, alcohol consumption and medical treatment. The primary objective is to estimate the parameters of the model to conduct counter-factual health policy experiments. The model is estimated through...

The main computational tool for solving SUR or simultaneous equations models is the generalized QR decomposition (GQRD) of an exogenous matrix A and the Cholesky factorization of a dispersion matrix C. Initially the GQRD computes the QRD of A and then the RQD of QC, where Q is an orthogonal...

Generalized Lotka-Volterra (GLV) models extending the (70 year old) logistic equation to stochastic systems consisting of a multitude of competing auto-catalytic components lead to power distribution laws of the (100 year old) Pareto-Zipf type. In particular, when applied to economic systems,...

This paper presents a large-scale application of multi-agent, evolutionary modelling to the proposed new electricity trading arrangements (NETA) in the UK. This is a detailed, plant-by-plant model with an active specification of the demand side of the market. NETA involves a bilateral forwards...

In his monograph The Conquest of American Inflation, Sargent (1999) points out the perils of econometric policy evaluation of the Theil-Tinbergen tradition wherein one estimates a reduced form econometric model of the economy and subjects it to control. If the model is misspecified, as is...

The work studies the properties of a coordination game in which agents repeatedly compete to be in the population minority. The game reflects some essential features of those economic situations in which positive rewards are assigned to individuals who behave in opposition to the modal behavior...

On last yearÌs conference in Barcelona the authors presented an innovative expectation formation hypothesis. The assumption of fully rational agents is rejected and replaced by a bounded rationality approach that is modelled by means of a fuzzy rule-base. These rules as well as their components...

Since the beginning of this century, the normal distribution has played a central role in the mathematical finance literature. However, major drawbacks insight this assumption rely in the absence of closed form expressions for both its cumulative and probability density functions. Additionally,...

The LLS stock market model (for a review see the book in Academic Press 2000: "Microscopic Simulation of Financial Markets; From Investor Behavior to Market Phenomena" by Levy, Levy and Solomon, ISBN: 0124458904) is a model of heterogeneous quasi-rational investors operating in a complex...

This paper explores the dynamics of the U.S. hog market with three different dynamic models that are distinguished only by their assumptions with regard to market participants' expectations of future prices. The first model assumes that all the producers in the market have rational expectations....