Do governments of the left attract more terrorism than governments of the right? We examine how the political orientation of governments affects the probability of states being the target of terrorist attack. We develop a series of related theoretical linkages between partisan orientation,...

The authors investigate the expectations generated by the “interaction opportunity†model initially developed by Most and Starr for the study of diffusion. The impact that borders and alliances have as “treatments†on the overall war behavior of states is the focus of study,...

One of the axioms of political analysis is that office-holders desire to continue to hold office and behave accordingly. A key implication of this view is that if the policies chosen by leaders are selected because leaders believe the policies will enhance their position, then the wars we see in...

A new forecasting model, solved for Bayesian Perfect Equilibria, is introduced. It, along with several alternative models, is tested on data from the European Union. The new model, which allows for contingent forecasts and for generating confidence intervals around predictions, outperforms...