An influential paper by Kleibergen (2005) introduces Lagrange multiplier (LM) and conditional likelihood ratio-like (CLR) tests for nonlinear moment condition models. These procedures aim to have good size performance even when the parameters are unidentified or poorly identified. However, the...

This paper introduces two new identification- and singularity-robust conditional quasi-likelihood ratio (SR-CQLR) tests and a new identification- and singularity-robust Anderson and Rubin (1949) (SR-AR) test for linear and nonlinear moment condition models. The paper shows that the tests have...

This paper analyzes the properties of a class of estimators, tests, and confidence sets (CS's) when the parameters are not identified in parts of the parameter space. Specifically, we consider estimator criterion functions that are sample averages and are smooth functions of a parameter theta....

This paper analyzes the properties of a class of estimators, tests, and confidence sets (CS's) when the parameters are not identified in parts of the parameter space. Specifically, we consider estimator criterion functions that are sample averages and are smooth functions of a parameter theta....

A stochastic-simulation method is proposed in this paper for obtaining median unbiased estimates of lagged dependent variable coefficients in macroeconomic models. Estimated biases for 13 equations of a macroeconomic model are computed. These biases are on average somewhat smaller in absolute...

This paper uses a structurally estimated macroeconometric model, denoted the MC model, to evaluate inflation targeting in the United States. Various interest rate rules are tried with differing weights on inflation and output, and various optimal control problems are solved using differing...

The informational content of different forecasts can be compared by regressing the actual change in a variable to be forecasted on forecasts of the change. We use the procedure in Fair and Shiller (1987) to examine the informational content of three sets of ex ante forecasts: the American...

This paper examines various interest rate rules, as well as policies derived by solving optimal control problems, for their ability to dampen economic fluctuations caused by random shocks. A tax rate rule is also considered. A multicountry econometric model is used for the experiments. The...

This paper provides an interpretation of the uncertainty that exists at the beginning of the day of an election as to who will win. It is based on the theory that there are a number of possible conditions of nature that can exist on election day, of which one is drawn. Political betting markets...