Showing 1 - 10 of 31
We quantify the causal link between exchange rate movements and sovereign risk of 16 major emerging market economies (EMEs) by means of structural vector autoregressive models (SVARs) using data from 10/2004 through 12/2016. We apply a novel data based identification approach of the structural...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012891675
The GARCH(1,1) model and its extensions have become a standard econometric tool for modeling volatility dynamics of financial returns and portfolio risk. In this paper, we propose an adjustment of GARCH implied conditional value-at-risk and expected shortfall forecasts that exploits the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013084434
We assess the contribution of macroeconomic uncertainty - approximated by the dispersion of the real GDP survey forecasts - to the ex post and ex ante prediction of stock price bubbles. For a panel of six OECD economies covering 24 years, two alternative binary chronologies of bubble periods are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013048399
We evaluate the informational content of ex post and ex ante predictors of periods of excess stock (market) valuation. For a cross section comprising 10 OECD economies and a time span of at most 40 years alternative binary chronologies of price bubble periods are determined. Using these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013112839
In vector autoregressive analysis confidence intervals for individual impulse responses are typically reported to indicate the sampling uncertainty in the estimation results. A range of methods are reviewed and a new proposal is made for constructing joint confidence bands, given a prespecified...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014158723
It is emphasized that the shocks in structural vector autoregressions are only identified up to sign and it is pointed out that this feature can result in very misleading confidence intervals for impulse responses if simulation methods such as Bayesian or bootstrap methods are used. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014166463
We propose a test for time-varying impulse responses in heteroskedastic structural vector autoregressions that can be used when the shocks are identified by external proxy variables as a group. The test can be used even if the shocks are not identified individually. The asymptotic analysis is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014084234
There is evidence that estimates of long-run impulse responses of structural vector autoregressive (VAR) models based on long-run identifying restrictions may not be very accurate. This finding suggests that using short-run identifying restrictions may be preferable. We compare structural VAR...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012962687
Identification through heteroskedasticity in heteroskedastic simultaneous equations models (HSEMs) is considered. The possibility that heteroskedasticity identifies the structural parameters only partially is explicitly allowed for. The asymptoticproperties of the identified parameters are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012965407
The performance of information criteria and tests for residual heteroskedasticity for choosing between different models for time-varying volatility in the context of structural vector autoregressive analysis is investigated. Although it can be difficult to find the true volatility model with the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012952484