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Hysteresis and Persistence in the Course of Unemployment: The EU and US Experience

Dreger, Christian; Reimers, Hans-Eggert - 2006

We investigate hysteresis and persistence behaviour in the course of unemployment in EU countries and US states by …. Hysteresis in EU unemployment is attributed to the idiosyncratic, but not to the common component. In contrast, idiosyncratic … components are stationary in the US. If hysteresis behaviour is also relevant here, it is more likely to arise in the common …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260946

Capital accumulation, labour market institutions, and unemployment in the medium run

Stockhammer, Engelbert; Klär, Erik - 2008

According to the mainstream view, labour market institutions (LMI) are the key determinants of unemployment in the medium run. The actual empirical explanatory power of measures for labour market institutions, however, has been called into question recently (Baker et al 2005, Baccaro and Rei...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010265039

Time-varying Nairu and real interest rates in the Euro Area

Logeay, Camille; Tober, Silke - 2003

This paper analyses the Nairu in the Euro Area and the influence that monetary policy had on its development. Using the … Kalman-filter technique we find that the Nairu has varied considerably since the early seventies. The Kalman-filter technique … explain a quarter of the increase in the Nairu between 1980 and 1995. This indicates the possibility of a long-run non …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260669

The New Keynesian Model and the Long-Run Vertical Phillips Curve: Does It Hold for Germany?

Gottschalk, Jan; Fritsche, Ulrich - 2005

contradicts the natural rate hypothesis, introduce a version of the New Keynesian model which allows for some hysteresis and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260877

Declining Output Volatility in Germany : Impulses, Propagation, and the Role of Monetary Policy

Fritsche, Ulrich; Kuzin, Vladimir N. - 2004

We analyse the decline in output volatility in Germany. A lower level of variance in an autoregressive model of output growth can be either due to a change in the structure of the economy (a change in the propagation mechanism) or a reduced error term variance (reduced impulses). In Germany the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274489

Persistence in youth unemployment

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alana, Luis A. - 2012

This paper examines the degree of persistence of youth unemployment (total, male and female) in twenty-four countries by using two alternative measures: the AR coefficient and the fractional differencing parameter, based on short- and longmemory processes respectively. The evidence suggests that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010289802

Estimating and Forecasting Aggregate Productivity Growth Trends in the US and Germany

Erber, Georg; Fritsche, Ulrich - 2005

This paper addresses the issue of estimating and forecasting productivity growth trends in the US and Germany from the perspective of a business cycle researcher who wants to use the available information in time series of aggregate labor productivity to derive a model for short- and/or...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260835

Google econometrics and unemployment forecasting

Askitas, Nikolaos; Zimmermann, Klaus F. - 2009

The current economic crisis requires fast information to predict economic behavior early, which is difficult at times of structural changes. This paper suggests an innovative new method of using data on internet activity for that purpose. It demonstrates strong correlations between keyword...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010271149

Testing unemployment theories: A multivariate long memory approach

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alaña, Luis A.; Lovcha, … - 2013

multivariate methods instead, higher orders of integration are still found for the UK and Japanese series, but the NAIRU hypothesis …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010327857

Unconventional fiscal policy in HANK

Seidl, Hannah; Seyrich, Fabian - 2022

We show that in a New Keynesian model with household heterogeneity, fiscal policy can be a perfect substitute for monetary policy: three simple conditions for consumption taxes, labor taxes, and the government debt level are sufficient to induce the same consumption and labor supply of each...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013339587