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Short-term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth: an assessment of real-time performance based on vintage data
Diron, Marie - 2006
Economic policy makers, international organisations and private-sector forecasters commonly use short-term forecasts of real GDP growth based on monthly indicators, such as industrial production, retail sales and confidence surveys. An assessment of the reliability of such tools and of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604668
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DIW-Konjunkturprognose : Aussichten reichen von wolkig bis heiter
Bönke, Timm; Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine; Baldi, Guido; … - In: DIW-Wochenbericht : Wirtschaft, Politik, Wissenschaft 90 (2023) 50, pp. 703-742
Die Erholung der deutschen Wirtschaft wird zur Geduldsprobe. Im dritten Quartal dieses Jahres lief es schlechter als erwartet - vor allem, weil die privaten Haushalte trotz steigender Löhne und sinkender Inflation ihr Geld nach wie vor nur zurückhaltend ausgeben. Der private Konsum und auch...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014444123
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DIW-Konjunkturprognose: Deutschland hinkt der Weltwirtschaft hinterher
Bönke, Timm; Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine; Baldi, Guido; … - In: DIW-Wochenbericht : Wirtschaft, Politik, Wissenschaft 90 (2023) 36/37, pp. 471-503
Die deutsche Wirtschaft ist zuletzt kaum vom Fleck gekommen. Nach der Winterrezession und einer Stagnation im zweiten Quartal geht es nun in Trippelschritten bergauf. Kräftigere Zuwächse der Löhne und Gehälter zusammen mit einer niedrigeren Inflation dürften den Startschuss für eine...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014365109
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Short-Term Forecasts of Euro Area Real GDP Growth : An Assessment of Real-Time Performance Based on Vintage Data
Diron, Marie - 2021
Economic policy makers, international organisations and private-sector forecasters commonly use short-term forecasts of real GDP growth based on monthly indicators, such as industrial production, retail sales and confidence surveys. An assessment of the reliability of such tools and of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317625
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Neues DIW-Modell kann Einkommensverteilung am aktuellen Rand vorhersagen : Ungleichheit dürfte in diesem Jahr leicht zunehmen
Bönke, Timm; Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine; Pagenhardt, Laura - In: DIW-Wochenbericht : Wirtschaft, Politik, Wissenschaft 90 (2023) 24, pp. 326-332
Die Corona-Pandemie hat die Entwicklung des Arbeitsmarkts und der Arbeitseinkommen der Haushalte in den vergangenen Jahren geprägt. Dabei waren Beschäftigte je nach Branche und Qualifizierungsgrad unterschiedlich stark betroffen, was deutliche Verschiebungen in der Verteilung der...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014318359
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How repayments manipulate our perceptions about loan dynamics after a boom
Adalid, Ramón; Falagiarda, Matteo - 2018
We propose a method to decompose net lending flows into loan origination and repayments. We show that a boom in loan origination is transmitted to repayments with a very long lag, depressing the growth rate of the stock for many periods. In the euro area, repayments of the mortgage loans granted...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012142055
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How Repayments Manipulate Our Perceptions about Loan Dynamics after a Boom
Adalid, Ramón; Falagiarda, Matteo - 2021
We propose a method to decompose net lending flows into loan origination and repayments. We show that a boom in loan origination is transmitted to repayments with a very long lag, depressing the growth rate of the stock for many periods. In the euro area, repayments of the mortgage loans granted...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315372
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Putting the New Keynesian DSGE model to the real-time forecasting test
Kolasa, Marcin; Rubaszek, Michał; Skrzypczyński, Paweł - 2009
. Nevertheless, their forecasting properties are still barely explored. We fill this gap by comparing the quality of real … priors from a DSGE model. We show that the analyzed DSGE model is relatively successful in forecasting the US economy in the … accurate short-term forecasts for interest rates. Conditional on experts' now casts, however, the forecasting power of the DSGE …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605156
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Euro area labour markets: different reaction to shocks?
Brůha, Jan; Pierluigi, Beatrice; Serafini, Roberta - 2011
A small labour market model for the six largest euro area countries (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Belgium) is estimated in a state -space framework. The model entails, in the long run, four driving forces: a trend labour force component, a trend labour productivity component,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605330
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Understanding and forecasting aggregate and disaggregate price dynamics
Bermingham, Colin; D’Agostino, Antonello - 2011
The issue of forecast aggregation is to determine whether it is better to forecast a series directly or instead construct forecasts of its components and then sum these component forecasts. Notwithstanding some underlying theoretical results, it is generally accepted that forecast aggregation is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605411