Identifying the drivers of credit cycles is crucial for prudential regulation. We show in a model that investor sentiments result in excessive asset price movements, leading to sharp credit reversals. Motivated by this, we decompose fluctuations in stock prices into fundamental and noise shocks...

We measure the time-varying strength of macrofinancial linkages within and across the US and euro area economies by relying on factor models with drifting parameters, where real and financial cycles are extracted and shocks are identified via sign and exclusion restrictions. The main results...

I study the business cycle dynamics of the maturity structure of the debt of U.S. non-financial firms. I document three facts: First, the aggregate share of long-term debt in total debt is pro-cyclical. Second, the long-term debt share of small firms has a higher standard deviation and...

We show that systemic risk in the banking sector breeds macroeconomic uncertainty. We develop a model of a production economy with a banking sector where financial constraints of banks can lead to disastrous banking panics. We find that a higher probability of a banking panic increases...

We study the effects of shadow banking panics in a macroeconomic model with a rich financial system, including deposit-financed retail banks and wholesale-financed shadow banks. The model can quantitatively match the dynamics of key variables around the US financial crisis. Wholesale funding...