Hyndman, Rob; Booth, Heather; Yasmeen, Farah - In: Demography 50 (2013) 1, pp. 261-283
When independence is assumed, forecasts of mortality for subpopulations are almost always divergent in the long term. We propose a method for coherent forecasting of mortality rates for two or more subpopulations, based on functional principal components models of simple and interpretable...