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Probabilistic risk beliefs are key drivers of economic and health decisions, but people are not always certain about their beliefs. We study these "imprecise probabilities", also known as ambiguous beliefs. We show that imprecision is measurable separately from the levels of risk beliefs. People...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014390526
surge in the stock market would be self-correcting. Recent papers have discussed the role of "uncertainty" and its … measurement in influencing economic decisions. They attempt to measure uncertainty by indexes of volatility of the stock market …, GDP, forecaster disagreement, mentions of uncertainty in news media, and the dispersion of productivity shocks to firms …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011543578
. Fifth, our survey evidence suggests that elevated uncertainty is exerting only mild restraint on capital investment plans …We examine several measures of uncertainty to make five points. First, equity market traders and executives at … nonfinancial firms have shared similar assessments about one-year-ahead uncertainty since the pandemic struck. Both the one …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013186704
risk preferences. Here, we develop an analogous tool for choice under uncertainty - the ambiguity triangle - and show that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011289313
social security schemes, an ageing population thus leads to policy uncertainty in first pillar pensions. This paper sheds … presence of such policy uncertainty. To do so, I assess the influence of subjective policy change expectations on voluntary … for anticipated policy changes in old age social security and policy uncertainty in social security thus seems to lead to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003753597
Bayesian Updating is the dominant theory of learning in economics. The theory is silent about how individuals react to events that were previously unforeseeable or unforeseen. Recent theoretical literature has put forth axiomatic frameworks to analyze the unknown. In particular, we test if...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012306040
excuse-driven behavior is comparable under ambiguity and under risk. Individuals exploit any type of uncertainty as an excuse … not to give, regardless of the nature of this uncertainty. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012152068
The ability to uncover preferences from choices is fundamental for both positive economics and welfare analysis. Overwhelming evidence shows that choice is stochastic, which has given rise to random utility models as the dominant paradigm in applied microeconomics. However, as is well known, it...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011946760
Using uncertainty about the future returns to migration, the option value theory of migration can explain low migration …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011405562
: Utility curvature, loss aversion, preferences towards the timing of uncertainty resolution, and the propensity to choose … aversion ; uncertainty resolution ; field experiments …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003811220