Spatial price comparisons rely to a high degree on the quality of the underlying price data that are collected within or across countries. Below the basic heading level, these price data often exhibit large gaps. Therefore,stochastic index number methods like the CPD method and the GEKS method...

We study the welfare performance of various simple monetary policy rules under bounded rationality (BR) along the lines of Gabaix (2020) in a New Keynesian model with sticky wages and an effective lower bound (ELB) on interest rates. Policy strategies with a strong history dependence lose their...

The shifts in household consumption caused by the coronavirus pandemic affect inflation measurement in the euro area via the updating of product weights. We propose a decomposition of the inflation rate, measured by the annual percentage change of the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP),...

Yes, they would. In a randomized control trial, we provide groups of respondents from the Bundesbank Online Panel Households with information about a hypothetical alternative ECB monetary policy regime akin to the Federal Reserve's flexible average inflation targeting (AIT). Inflation...

We show that if business cycles are driven by financial shocks, the interplay between the effective lower bound (ELB) and the costs of external financing can generate an additional supply-side channel, which causes a disconnect between inflation and output. In normal times, factor costs dominate...

We investigate the extent to which the effect of the 2018/2019 US import tariff hikes on US (post-tariff) import prices was offset by the concurrent appreciation of the US dollar and trace the source of the appreciation back to US trade policy itself. The dollar response to trade policy...

Those of professional forecasters do. For a wide range of time series models for the euro area and its member states we find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB's SPF and Consensus Economics compared to their...

According to the two-country full information New Keynesian model with flexible exchange rates, the real exchange rate appreciates in response to an asymmetric negative demand shock at the zero lower bound (ZLB) and exacerbates the adverse macroeconomic effects. This finding requires inflation...

Using micro price data underlying the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices in France, Germany and Italy, we estimate relative price trends over the product life cycle and show that minimizing price and mark-up distortions in the presence of these trends requires targeting a significantly positive...

Using survey data from German households, we find that individuals with lower climate concern tend to have higher inflation expectations up to five years ahead. This correlation is most pronounced among individuals with extremely high inflation expectations. Evaluating candidate explanations, we...