This paper presents a model for the long-run determinants of the Brazilian real exchange rate for the period 1947/95. This is a simple representative agent model that links the exchange rate, external debt and net exports. It is assumed that: a) the country pays an interest rate on its debt...

Bayesian dynamic linear models (DLM) are useful in time series modelling because of the flexibility that they present in obtaining a good forecast. They are based on a decomposition of the relevant factors which explain the behavior of the series through a series of state parameters....

This paper uses VAR models to discuss two main questions: a) are the indexing mechanisms that characterised the Brazilian economy for decades a thing of the past, or could they be easily reactivated in the event of some important price shock? b) given the fiscal stance, what would be the likely...

Is the high degree of indexing that characterized the Brazilian economy for decades a thing of the past, or could it be easily reactivated in the event of some important price shock? Alternatively: is the economy sufficiently stable to absorb a large exchange rate nominal devaluation? This paper...

Based on three versions of a small macroeconomic model for Brazil, this paper presents empirical evidence on the effects of parameter uncertainty on monetary policy rules and on the robustness of optimal and simple rules over different model specifications. By comparing the optimal policy rule...

Space-varying regression models are generalizations of standard linear models where the regression coefficients are allowed to change in space. The spatial structure is specified by a multivariate extension of pairwise difference priors thus enabling incorporation of neighboring structures and...

The monetary authorities need a future measure of inflation trend to keep on tracking the inflation on target. Many alternatives of the core inflation measure have appeared in the recent literature pretending to avoid the deficiencies of the usual headline inflation index as a predictor. This...

This paper is concerned with the study of Bayesian inference procedures to commonly used time series models. In particular, the dynamic or state-space models, the time-varying vector autoregressive model and the structural vector autoregressive model are considered in detail. Inference...

This paper describes the inference procedures required to perform Bayesian inference to some multivariate econometric models. These models have a spatial component built into commonly used multivariate models. In particular, the seemingly unrelated regression and vector autoregressive models are...

Regulation in the sanitation sector in Brazil is facing a great deal of debate regarding the government level in which conceding authority should reside and how private operators can fulfill social objectives. The main objective of this study is to show that these issues are not the crucial...