Uncertain and persistent real interest rates underpin one argument for using a declin- ing term structure of social discount rates in the Expected Net Present Value (ENPV) framework. Despite being controversial, this approach has in uenced both the Inter-Agency Working Group on Cost-Benefit...

We develop two- and three-state regime switching models and test their forecasting ability for oil prices. We use the deviations of market oil price from fundamental values as the main explanatory variable in our models, while additional potential predictors enrich our specification. Our...

This paper provides useful guidelines to practitioners who investigate Granger causality within a system of more than two variables by means of the two-step procedure proposed by Cheung and Ng (Journal of Econometrics, 1996) and modified by Hong (Journal of Econometrics, 2001). First, a...