Petroleum-producing countries face unique challenges in meeting global emissions targets. As global petroleum consumption declines, these nations must reallocate resources and phase out a historically profitable industry. This study examines Norway's economic transformation resulting from a...

This paper examines the forecast accuracy of cointegrated vector autoregressive models when confronted with extreme observations at the end of the sample period. It focuses on comparing two outlier correction methods, additive outliers and innovational outliers, within a forecasting framework...

We analyse how fiscal policy affects both the macroeconomy and the industry structure, using a multi-sector macroeconomic model of the Norwegian economy with an inflation targeting monetary policy. Our simulations show that the government spending multiplier in the case of a permanent...

The labour force surveys (LFSs) on all Eurostat countries underwent a substantial redesign in January 2021. To ensure coherent labour market time series for the main indicators in the Norwegian LFS, we model the impact of the redesign. We use a state-space model that takes explicit account of...

The parameters in the cointegration vector and the loading parameters are not the only interesting parameters in a vector cointegration model. With a reformulation of the model the intercept parameters can be decomposed into growth parameters and cointegration mean parameters. These parameters...

Modelling the Norwegian exchange rate against a basket of currencies, we find a robust long-term link between the real exchange rate and real interest differential that is consistent with purchasing power parity (PPP) and uncovered interest parity (UIP). However, PPP alone is rejected. These...

This study compares the forecasting performance of a structural exchange rate model that combines the purchasing power parity condition with the interest rate differential in the long run, with some alternative models. The analysis is applied to the Norwegian exchange rate. The long run...

The paper describes a procedure for decomposing the deterministic terms in cointegrated VAR models into growth rate parameters and cointegration mean parameters. These parameters express long-run properties of the model. For example, the growth rate parameters tell us how much to expect...

This paper addresses the purchasing power parity (PPP) puzzle for commodity currencies. A substantial part of the literature on commodity currencies has found that, despite controlling for the effect of commodity prices, PPP does not hold in the long run. We show that once we also control for...

In a system with n input factors there are n − 1 independent cost shares. An often-used approach in estimating factor demand systems is to (implicitly or explicitly) assume that there is a (independent) cointegrating relationship for each of the n − 1 independent cost shares. However, due to...