More than thirty years ago Milton Friedman proposed a 'plucking' model of business fluctuations in which output cannot exceed a ceiling level, but will, from time to time, be plucked downward by recession. The model implied that business fluctuations are asymmetric, that recessions have only a...

Privious work reported that heteroskedasticity did not affect the sampling distribution of the variance ratio, or had assumed that the investigator know a priori the pattern of heteroskedasticity. This paper uses the Gibbs sampling approach in the context of a three state Markov-switching model...