Fiscal policymakers are expected to conduct countercyclical policies to mitigate cyclical fluctuations of output, but the assessment of cyclical conditions in real time is subject to considerable uncertainty. They face two types of risk: (i) launching discretionary measures to support or dampen...

The novel partial-use philosophy by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision initiates a paradigm shift for banks, allowing them to permanently partially apply the internal ratings-based approach (IRBA) and not having to fully roll it out across the overall bank anymore. This raises the...

In the last decade, stress tests have become indispensable in bank risk management which has led to significantly increased requirements for stress tests for banks and regulators. Although the complexity of stress testing frameworks has been enhanced considerably over the course of the last few...

We develop an operational model of information contagion and show how it may be integrated into a mainstream, top-down, stress-testing framework to quantify systemic risk. The key transmission mechanism is a two-way interaction between the beliefs of secondary market investors and the...

This paper deals with stress tests for credit risk and shows how exploiting the discretion when setting up and implementing a model can drive the results of a quantitative stress test for default probabilities. For this purpose, we employ several variations of a CreditPortfolioView-style model...

The Value at Risk approach (VaR) is more and more used as a tool for risk measurement. The approach however has shortcomings both from a theoretical and a practical point of view. VaR can be classified within existing concepts of risk measurement: it is particularly interpretable as a special...