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The linear pool is the most popular method for combining density forecasts. We analyze the linear pool's implications concerning forecast uncertainty in a new theoretical framework that focuses on the mean and variance of each density forecast to be combined. Our results show that, if the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012054835
Multivariate distributional forecasts have become widespread in recent years. To assess the quality of such forecasts, suitable evaluation methods are needed. In the univariate case, calibration tests based on the probability integral transform (PIT) are routinely used. However, multivariate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013472781