We explore whether modelling parameter time variation improves the point, interval and density forecasts of nine major exchange rates vis-a-vis the US dollar over the period 1976-2015. We find that modelling parameter time variation is needed for an accurate calibration of forecast confidence...

We examine how the adverse impacts of weather shocks are distributed through the trade network. Exploiting a rich, theoretically derived, fixed effects structure, we find significant negative short-run effects of high temperature on exports. A month with an average temperature above 30 °C...

Climate change causes natural disasters to occur at higher frequency and increased severity. Using a unique dataset on German banks, this paper explores how regionally less diversified banks in Germany adjusted their loan loss provisioning following the severe summer flood of 2013, which...

The interaction between the sea and the economy gives this environment enormous strategic importance. The forms of economic exploitation are diverse and include sectors such as energy, fishing, tourism, transportation, biotechnology, and shipbuilding. For Brazil, country with an extensive...