Every year 400,000 entrepreneurs fail and 60,000 file for personal bankruptcy. The option to declare bankruptcy provides entrepreneurs with insurance against the financial consequences of business failures. However, it comes at the cost of worsened credit market conditions. In this paper, we...

In this paper we ‘update’ the option implied probability of default (option iPoD) approach recently suggested in the literature. First, a numerically more stable objective function for the estimation of the risk neutral density is derived whose integrals can be solved analytically. Second,...

How does bank distress impact their customers' probability of default and trade credit availability? We address this question by looking at a unique sample of German firms from 2000 to 2011. We follow their firm-bank relationships through times of distress and crisis, featuring the different...

In diesem Artikel prognostizieren wir Insolvenzwahrscheinlichkeiten von kleinen und mittleren Unternehmen, die bislang noch keine hinreichende Beachtung gefunden haben, obwohl diese Unternehmen besonders insolvenzgefährdet sind. Die Schwierigkeit bei der Insolvenzprognose von kleinen und...

During the last years more and more discussions came up about the contribution of technology-oriented and technology-intensive industries for the economic development and employment. One reason for these contradictory evaluations of technology-intensive industries can be attributed to different...

In this paper, we report results of an ongoing empirical analysis of firm dynamics in East Germany. After discussing specifics of a newly available data set with information on more than 100.000 firms, we analyze patterns of business starts and failures. Furthermore, we present preliminary...

In this paper we discuss determinants of firm survival and growth in Germany within its pre-1989 boundaries. We develop our central hypotheses on the basis of a simple theoretical model describing the self-selection of heterogeneous entrepreneurs into particular legal forms, and the implications...