research. Many forecast surveys ask their participants for fixed-event forecasts. Since fixed-event forecasts have seasonal … very flexible. The forecast to be approximated as well as the information employed by the approximation can be any linear …

estimates of survey-consistent term structures of expectations and uncertainty at arbitrary forecast horizons. Our models … comparable in quality to the published, widely used short-horizon forecasts. Our estimates of time-varying forecast uncertainty …

-of-sample forecast evaluation setup, we are able to find informative forecasts for most of the underlying GDP components. We then show … first, that both approaches already yield informative aggregate forecasts for forecast horizons of up to 28 weeks and second …, that combining the production side and the demand side projections substantially improves the forecast performance, in …