VARs. To address these issues, we propose VAR models with outlier-augmented stochastic volatility (SV) that combine … transitory and persistent changes in volatility. The resulting density forecasts are much less sensitive to outliers in the data … the pandemic period, as well as for earlier subsamples of relatively high volatility. In historical forecasting, outlier …

The uncertainty of U.S. core inflation, measured by the stochastic volatility of forecast errors, has soared to a level …

This paper proposes a Skewed Stochastic Volatility (SSV) model to model time varying, asymmetric forecast distributions … volatility and asymmetric measurement densities. Estimating the model based on US data yields conditional forecast densities that …

case of high volatility regimes. …