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Endogenous foreign capital flow in a CGE model for Brazil : the role of international reserves

Maldonado, Wilfredo Leiva; Tourinho, Octávio Augusto Fontes - 2015

In this paper we model foreign capital flow to Brazil as stemming from an investment decision that whose risk depends on the expected rate of loss of foreign reserves. This motivates the estimation of an empirical relationship between these two variables that is valid for "normal" periods (when...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012023633

A macroeconomic reverse stress test

Grundke, Peter; Pliszka, Kamil - 2015

Reverse stress tests are a relatively new stress test instrument that aims at finding exactly those scenarios that cause a bank to cross the frontier between survival and default. Afterward, the scenario which is most probable has to be identified. This paper sketches a framework for a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011334117

Domestic saving and investment revised : can the Feldstein-Horioka equation be used for policy analysis?

Sachsida, Adolfo; Mendonça, Mário Jorge - 2015

) domestic saving is not strongly exogenous, therefore this equation should not be used to make forecasts for the Brazilian …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012038727

Neoclassical growth in an interdependent world

Kleinman, Benny; Liu, Ernest; Redding, Stephen; Yogo, … - 2023

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014439930

Short-term forecasting economic activity in Germany : a supply and demand side system of bridge equations

Pinkwart, Nicolas - 2018

and combining the resulting two aggregate GDP forecasts. Comparing several specification schemes in an out …-of-sample forecast evaluation setup, we are able to find informative forecasts for most of the underlying GDP components. We then show … first, that both approaches already yield informative aggregate forecasts for forecast horizons of up to 28 weeks and second …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011900715

Google data in bridge equation models for German GDP

Götz, Thomas B.; Knetsch, Thomas A. - 2017

There has been increased interest in the use of "big data" when it comes to forecasting macroeconomic time series such as private consumption or unemployment. However, applications on forecasting GDP are rather rare. In this paper we incorporate Google search data into a Bridge Equation Model, a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011667109

A note on the predictive power of survey data in nowcasting euro area GDP

Kurz-Kim, Jeong-Ryeol - 2018

This paper investigates the trade-off between timeliness and quality in nowcasting practices. This trade-off arises when the frequency of the variable to be nowcast, such as GDP, is quarterly, while that of the underlying panel data is monthly; and the latter contains both survey and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011846875

A random forest-based approach to identifying the most informative seasonality tests

Ollech, Daniel; Webel, Karsten - 2020

Virtually each seasonal adjustment software includes an ensemble of seasonality tests for assessing whether a given time series is in fact a candidate for seasonal adjustment. However, such tests are certain to produce either the same resultor conflicting results, raising the question if there...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012301212

Data revisions to German national accounts : are initial releases good nowcasts?

Strohsal, Till; Wolf, Elias - 2019

Data revisions to national accounts pose a serious challenge to policy decision making. Well-behaved revisions should be unbiased, small and unpredictable. This paper shows that revisions to German national accounts are biased, large and predictable. Moreover, using filtering techniques designed...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012034636

Forecasting banknote circulation during the COVID-19 pandemic using structural time series models

Bartzsch, Nikolaus; Brandi, Marco; Pastor, Raymond de; … - 2023

As part of the Eurosystem’s annual banknote production planning, the national central banks draw up forecasts …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014320825