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The nonlinear dynamics of corporate bond spreads : regime-dependent effects of their determinants

Fischer, Henning; Stolper, Oscar - 2019

varies substantially with market conditions. In periods of high volatility, systematic credit risk - rather than interest … volatility is low, it becomes a crucial factor during stress periods. Our results challenge the notion that spreads predominantly …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011979160

Tests for jumps in yield spreads

Winkelmann, Lars; Yao, Wenying - 2023

This paper studies high-frequency econometric methods to test for a jump in the spread of bond yields. We propose a coherent inference procedure that detects a jump in the yield spread only if at least one of the two underlying bonds displays a jump. Ignoring this inherent connection by basing...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014343097

Tests for jumps in yield spreads

Winkelmann, Lars; Yao, Wenying - 2021

This paper develops high-frequency econometric methods to test for jumps in the spread of bond yields. We derive a coherent inference procedure that detects a jump in the yield spread only if at least one of the two underlying bonds displays a jump. We formalize the test as a sequential...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012655372

Procyclical asset management and bond risk premia

Barbu, Alexandru; Fricke, Christoph; Mönch, Emanuel - 2020

Institutional funds have concentrated ownership by a few institutional investors, infrequent outflows and essentially no leverage. Yet using unique granular data on the bond holdings of institutional funds, we show that their trading behavior is strongly procyclical: they actively move into...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012250652

Large mixed-frequency VARs with a parsimonious time-varying parameter structure

Götz, Thomas B.; Hauzenberger, Klemens - 2018

To simultaneously consider mixed-frequency time series, their joint dynamics, and possible structural changes, we introduce a time-varying parameter mixed-frequency VAR. To keep our approach from becoming too complex, we implement time variation parsimoniously: only the intercepts and a common...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011903709

Financial crises and the dynamic linkages between stock and bond returns

Eraslan, Sercan; Ali, Faek Menla - 2017

framework is a bivariate volatility model, where volatility spillovers of either positive or negative sign are allowed for. Our … countries. Regarding the volatility spillovers, such spillovers from bond returns to those of stocks are stronger than the other … results show that by considering time-varying return and volatility spillovers when calculating the risk-minimising portfolio …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011663407

An affine multifactor model with macro factors for the German term structure : changing results during the recent crises

Halberstadt, Arne; Stapf, Jelena - 2012

Using arbitrage-free affine models, we analyze the dynamics of German bond yields and risk premia for the period 1999 to 2010 (EMU). We estimate two model specifications, one with only latent factors, and another one with a Taylor-type rule comprising a price and a real activity factor drawn...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009656194

Extreme inflation and time-varying consumption growth

Dergunov, Ilya; Meinerding, Christoph; Schlag, Christian - 2019

In a parsimonious regime switching model, expected consumption growth varies over time. Adding in ation as a conditioning variable, we uncover two states in which expected consumption growth is low, one with high and one with negative expected in ation. Embedded in a general equilibrium asset...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012000570

The time-varying impact of systematic risk factors on corporate bond spreads

Klein, Arne Christian; Pliszka, Kamil - 2018

During the global financial crisis, stressed market conditions led to skyrocketing corporate bond spreads that could not be explained by conventional modeling approaches. This paper builds on this observation and sheds light on time-variations in the relationship between systematic risk factors...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011855295

The determinants of CDS spreads : evidence from the model space

Pelster, Matthias; Vilsmeier, Johannes - 2016

We apply Bayesian Model Averaging and a frequentistic model space analysis to assess the pricing-determinants of credit default swaps (CDS). Our study focuses on the complete model space of plausible models covering most of the variables and specifications used elsewhere in the literature,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011561899