research. Many forecast surveys ask their participants for fixed-event forecasts. Since fixed-event forecasts have seasonal … very flexible. The forecast to be approximated as well as the information employed by the approximation can be any linear …

Forecasts are useless whenever the forecast error variance fails to be smaller than the unconditional variance of the … forecast horizon h. Following Diebold and Mariano (DM, 1995) we propose a test based on the comparison of the mean …-squared error of the forecast and the sample variance. We show that the resulting test does not possess a limiting normal …

the PIT of the score. The second is based on comparing the expected performance of the forecast distribution (i.e., the … and power properties in simulations and solve various problems of existing tests. We apply the new tests to forecast …

estimates of survey-consistent term structures of expectations and uncertainty at arbitrary forecast horizons. Our models … comparable in quality to the published, widely used short-horizon forecasts. Our estimates of time-varying forecast uncertainty …

We present a comprehensive disaggregate approach for short-term forecasting economic activity in Germany by explicitly …-of-sample forecast evaluation setup, we are able to find informative forecasts for most of the underlying GDP components. We then show … first, that both approaches already yield informative aggregate forecasts for forecast horizons of up to 28 weeks and second …

retailers. Forecasting the demand for cash on a granular level is crucial in the process to keep logistics costs low, while … models to define banknote production for the coming years, our contribution is to combine features of macro level forecasting … forecasting methods on granular level can substantially improve inventory performance for this use-case. To guide the …